Democrats are hoping that the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade will energize its base for the midterms, but polling indicates abortion is not a winning issue for them.
The ruling Friday sends the issue of abortion regulation back to the states where reproductive rights will become an issue in every upcoming election for the foreseeable future. At least 23 states have either trigger laws or pre-Roe statutes on the books which will ban or restrict abortion immediately.
The problem for Democrats is not that the ruling won’t energize its base, it will. The issue is that most voters for whom being pro-choice is their primary issue are already aligned with the left. For the ruling to impact elections, independents must be persuaded to prioritize abortion as their main issue. In the short term, however, there are many more pressing concerns for the electorate.
Independents are currently favoring Republicans because of their handling of inflation, crime, and national security. Immediate economic concerns are taking precedence. Also, the left’s unhinged demand for abortion on demand at any time during pregnancy is not a winning argument either. Most Americans believe that the practice should be prohibited after the 1st trimester.
Riots and destruction of property are expected, and this will only bolster arguments that the left is the party of lawlessness. The other problem for Democrats is that the midterms are still five months away. This is an eternity in politics. No matter how much energy is gained by the events surrounding the decision, it is sure to wane over the coming months, especially if inflation continues to rise and the economy continues to tank.
Democrats are vowing to make this the central issue at the polls come November. They may be hitching their wagon to an issue that is a loser, especially in key demographics. Hispanics are supporting Republicans in record numbers, with abortion being one of the key reasons for the shift. If the left loses the Latin vote, it will be very difficult to find a path to victory on the national level.
The left is looking at these events as a gift to energize their base and give them hope for upcoming elections. They may soon discover that the ruling’s political utility is not everything they are wishing for.