HIGH STAKES Over Taiwan Invasion
Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to invade Taiwan by 2027. Most U.S. military and intelligence professionals expect Xi to invade this decade. Xi believes Taiwan must be subjugated under the CCP flag for his and the party’s political success.
The stakes are high. Taiwan’s demise would make China the Pacific’s dominating power. China’s win would also harm American allies like South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. It would disrupt Pacific-global trade and cripple the semiconductor sector. The US may defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack due to these grounds. President Joe Biden has said so four times (albeit his team has retracted his statements).
New satellite images show the PLA rehearsing ground strikes against the most sophisticated U.S. fighter jets. In April or May, photographs from a remote desert in China’s northern Xinjiang province show models of F-35 and F-22 fighter jets and P-3 and P-8 submarine-hunting aircraft. Some prototypes are burned, indicating an attack. The photographs also show impact holes on a neighboring runway, confirming PLA airfield destruction exercises.
If the U.S. went to war with China, it would move its most valuable air assets to fortified hangars. The military would also flood air bases with air defense equipment and execute other protective measures. The Air Force wouldn’t leave F-22s and F-35s adjacent to a runway for the PLA to fire intermediate- or long-range ballistic missiles at them. The PLA knows. However, as the F-22 fleet has only 100 jets, the U.S. military would lose strategic capabilities if any were destroyed.
China has a strategic reason to explore a preemptive strike on U.S. soldiers in Guam, Okinawa, Hawaii, and Alaska, where they were more exposed. Such an attack would undoubtedly drag the U.S. into war, but China may see nothing to lose by striking first. Since the Biden administration has failed to supply Guam with appropriate air defense, China may decide to take surprise action sooner rather than later.
The U.S. would call NATO allies to arms with any preemptive strike. It is unlikely that many of these allies would answer the call. Beijing believes Europeans’ infatuation with China-related trade will stop them from breaching its red lines.
Multilateral comments like the one at the recent NATO leaders conference condemning Chinese aggression are crucial (and China values France and Hungary’s efforts to undercut them). Beijing continually reminds us that Taiwan is the red line of all Chinese red lines.
In the context of rising tensions, this does not suggest a Chinese preemptive strike is imminent or plausible. The U.S. should be mindful that China is planning to fight early and vigorously.
