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As the 119th Congress prepares to convene Friday, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) faces a critical test of his leadership after a turbulent 14-month tenure. The House’s noon session presents a pivotal moment, as no official business can proceed until a Speaker is elected.
With the chamber’s composition at 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats following Matt Gaetz’s departure, Johnson’s margin for error is razor-thin. He can only afford to lose one Republican vote, assuming unified Democratic opposition.
Thank you, President Trump!
Today is a new day in America.
Congressional Republicans must stay united to quickly deliver President Trump’s America First agenda.
Let’s get it done. pic.twitter.com/I0tjr7nMhE
— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) January 3, 2025
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has already declared his opposition to Johnson, leaving no room for additional defections. Meanwhile, Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) leads a group of about twelve members in ongoing negotiations with Johnson regarding House operations, focusing on spending cuts, legislative package development, and committee input.
The Senate, in contrast, faces a routine start with only new Senator swearing-in ceremonies required. Their substantial work on President-elect Trump’s nominees and legislative agenda will likely commence next week.
Johnson, bolstered by Trump’s recent endorsement, projects confidence about securing a first-ballot victory. However, some opponents, including Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), are pushing for concessions, such as elevating Roy to Rules Committee chairman.
If Johnson fails to secure victory on the first ballot, the House faces procedural constraints without an adopted rules package. The Speaker could either call for adjournment or continue negotiations under public scrutiny.
I am ABSOLUTELY voting for Mike Johnson as our House Speaker at tomorrow’s vote.
President Trump was given a MANDATE by the American people to fix our country – that hard work can’t begin until we come together as a conference and get to work.
This is one team, one FIGHT! We… pic.twitter.com/bHW7LD5ufs
— Ronny Jackson (@RonnyJacksonTX) January 3, 2025
The situation echoes previous leadership crises, including Kevin McCarthy’s 15-ballot struggle in January 2023 and his subsequent removal after nine months. Should Johnson fail to secure victory within two or three ballots, the House could face another period of uncertainty.
“What President Trump and I want to do on family policy is make it easier for families to start in the first place. We want to bring down housing costs so that if you have a baby, there’s actually a place to raise that baby,” Vance said.
