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As the presidential election looms just two days away, recent polling data reveals a tight race in key battleground states. The latest New York Times and Siena College survey shows former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a virtual deadlock across six of seven crucial states.
US Elections: Trump and Kamala Harris in a close contest, new survey says this presidential election will be very interesting
US Presidential Election 2024 According to a new survey by the New York Times and Siena College, the popularity of both Vice President Kamala Harris pic.twitter.com/Zur9Vb4GzO
— Arvind Akela (@ArvindN18725168) November 3, 2024
Arizona stands out as the only state with a clear leader, where Trump holds a four-point advantage over Harris. The Grand Canyon State favors Trump 49% to 45% in a head-to-head matchup.
In Pennsylvania and Michigan, the candidates are locked in a tie, each garnering 48% and 47% respectively. Harris maintains slim leads within the margin of error in Nevada (49% to 46%), North Carolina (48% to 46%), Wisconsin (49% to 47%), and Georgia (48% to 47%).
If these results were to hold on Election Day, Harris would be on the brink of victory with 264 Electoral College votes, just shy of the 270 needed to secure the presidency.
The poll’s findings shift slightly when third-party candidates are factored in. Trump’s lead in Arizona narrows to 48% to 44%, while Georgia becomes a 46% tie. Michigan remains even at 45%, Nevada leans towards Harris at 48% to 46%, North Carolina favors Harris 48% to 45%, Pennsylvania gives Trump a slight edge at 47% to 46%, and Wisconsin backs Harris 48% to 45%.
Interestingly, the survey indicates that recent decision-makers are leaning towards Harris. Among the 8% of voters who made their choice recently, 55% support Harris compared to 44% for Trump. This trend could prove significant given the razor-thin margins in many states.
The poll, conducted between October 24 and November 2, surveyed 7,879 likely voters across the seven battleground states, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
As Election Day approaches, pollsters are under scrutiny, with some experts questioning the consistency of results across different polls. Analysts like Nate Silver have suggested that some pollsters might be adjusting their results to avoid being outliers, potentially masking the true state of the race.
The memory of polling inaccuracies in previous elections looms large, with pollsters accused of underestimating Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and overestimating Republican backing in the 2022 midterms.
A surprising poll from the Des Moines Register recently showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa, traditionally considered a Republican stronghold, by 47% to 44%. This finding from respected pollster J. Ann Selzer has raised eyebrows given Iowa’s recent voting history.
Meanwhile, an AtlasIntel poll, noted for its accuracy in the 2020 election, paints a different picture, favoring Trump in all seven battleground states, with leads outside the margin of error in four of them.
As the campaign enters its final hours, over 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. This early turnout represents a significant portion of the electorate, with the 2020 election seeing about 252 million total votes.
The stage is set for a nail-biting finish to one of the most closely watched presidential races in recent memory, with both campaigns fighting for every last vote in these crucial swing states.
