Former President Donald Trump’s chances for electoral success against Vice President Kamala Harris appear increasingly slim, with experts suggesting that Pennsylvania could be the key battleground determining the outcome.
Pennsylvania holds significant weight among the seven battleground states, offering 19 electoral votes, and has been crucial for 12 of the last 15 presidents. Trump and Harris are closely matched in Pennsylvania, and voters’ perceptions of who can best manage the economy might be decisive, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF).
PENNSYLVANIA IS TRUMP COUNTRY!!!😎🇺🇸🥳🥳🥳 pic.twitter.com/Ffa0iMsXp8
— il Donaldo Trumpo (@PapiTrumpo) September 20, 2024
“I think whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency,” said Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research. “Yeah, there are other ways to put all the pieces together. But the math winds up being fairly hard for Trump if he doesn’t pull off Pennsylvania.”
Trump landed in Philly for the debate, and Pennsylvania made sure to welcome him—because this is MAGA Country!!! ❤️🇺🇸pic.twitter.com/iOFcIzwqr8
— Julia 🇺🇸 (@Jules31415) September 10, 2024
“It’s the largest swing state,” McHenry added. “To replace those 19 electoral votes, you’ve got to put together North Carolina and Nevada or Georgia and Wisconsin. There are other ways to replace it, but it’s a closely divided state. I’d be surprised if someone wins it by more than two points one way or the other.”
Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, noted that while Harris is leading in national polls, state polls, particularly in Pennsylvania, will be crucial. “It’s those state polls that will be important in this election. And I think Pennsylvania is one of those.”
Recent polling averages show Harris with a slight edge over Trump in Pennsylvania, with both candidates tied at 49% in a Marist poll and at 48% in a Washington Post poll. Both candidates are heavily campaigning in the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump won all three in 2016 but lost them in 2020.
“Pennsylvania is bothering people because the paths to victory are very precarious,” Chand explained. “It’s like, how do you nail the combination? And Pennsylvania is a really sensitive spot.”
“Pennsylvania is a true, legitimate swing state,” said Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist. “It is truly a state with a middle temperament. And I believe that this presidential election will be won in the middle.”
Foxwell emphasized the need for candidates to appeal to both Democratic voters in Philadelphia and those in the rural areas. “Philly is sort of one center of gravity and then the rest of the state offsets it,” McHenry noted.
“The race is going to be won in the demographic middle,” Foxwell added, highlighting the suburbs and economic issues as crucial factors.
Currently, Pennsylvania’s governor, Josh Shapiro, along with Senators Bob Casey and John Fetterman, are all Democrats. However, Republican challenger David McCormick is polling closely with Casey, according to The Washington Post.
One key industry in Pennsylvania is oil and fracking, an area where Harris has faced criticism. In her 2020 presidential campaign, she stated she would end fracking but later claimed she “will not ban fracking” during a debate.
“If Pennsylvania voters actually go and do their research, they’re going to find that Vice President Harris doesn’t support fracking,” McHenry asserted. “Yeah, she probably lied to the nation in that moment.”
“Pennsylvania serves as a harbinger,” Foxwell concluded. “Because of its size, electoral prominence, and the demographics of its voter base, I think it’s absolutely the pivotal battleground heading into these final weeks.”
