Trump Would Clobber Biden If 2024 Election Was Held Now

Rasmussen Reports published survey results late last week from a poll of likely voters for the 2024 presidential elections. In a hypothetical election matchup between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, number 45 would prevail over his successor by 45% to 32%.

It is a not at all shocking poll result that should sober up Democrats still marching in feverish lockstep together on our freedoms and our Treasury, with all the zeal of yesteryear’s wild frenzy. At the same time, more Americans grow exhausted and exasperated every day.

A reader may object here that Rasmussen is a conservative polling outfit and biased toward Republican candidates. While it is true that Rasmussen is a conservative political polling company, its results are considered by other pollsters and poll watchers from the middle and Left to be relatively reliable.

FiveThirtyEight, the New York Times pollster blog started by statistician Nate Silver, gave Rasmussen a “B” grade for accuracy and concluded that the firm’s polling bias is overall 1.5 points in favor of Republican candidates. That is within the statistical margin of error of such public sentiment polls.

And a 1.5% bias toward the Republican in this matchup would hardly close the double-digit, 13-point lead Trump enjoyed over Biden. Democrats should not see it as bad news. They should see it as information and feedback. Calibrate guys.

If the overall polling sample result isn’t enough to wake you up to political realities that ostensibly matter to you, perhaps the breakdown among independent voters will help you see this is not just stubborn partisanship but that Americans are seriously chafing under your stewardship of the government already after less than a year.

The margin of defeat for Joe Biden is even starker among independent voters, a fundamental voting block with more unaffiliated voters than there are Republicans and more unaffiliated voters than there are Democrats. Non-affiliation with a party is America’s most prominent political affiliation, even though the RNC and DNC have run the show in Washington.

According to this Rasmussen survey, Joe loses to Donald 47% to 20% if the election were tomorrow. That is rough. According to Pew Research, after the ballots were counted for the 2020 elections, Joe Biden bested Donald Trump among independent voters by 52% to 43%.

Before getting too far ahead of ourselves, remember that Democrats hold slim majorities in Congress. Writing at CNN, Harry Enten pointed out in October that the independent turn against Joe Biden does not bode well for the Party of Jefferson in the 2022 midterms.