Former President Donald Trump has a large lead over President Joe Biden in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a recent poll. A victory in the state could seal the 270 electoral votes Trump would need to return to the White House.
According to a recent Emerson poll, the former president leads in Pennsylvania with 45% of the vote compared to 36% for Biden. A full 19% of the population was undecided or said that they would cast a ballot for “someone else.”
2024 Hypothetical Presidential General Election
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 11, 2023
Trump received a significant increase in the share of the population without a college degree. Among those with a high school diploma or less, Trump leads Biden 53% to 27%. This represents a larger share than Trump’s 2020 victory of 49%-36% among those voters.
Much of Trump’s 2016 victory hinged on the high turnout of such working-class voters, especially in states that have seen significant industrial job loss due to globalization.
The latest poll results follow a survey last week that showed Trump opening a lead in the Keystone State. According to the Quinnipiac poll ending Oct. 3, Trump led among adults with 47% of the vote to Biden’s 45%. The remainder of the poll had other bad news for the president. Among independents, Trump’s lead was significantly larger, notching 48% to Biden’s 39%.
Pennsylvania was a crucial part of both the 2016 and 2020 elections. After voting for Democratic Party candidates for almost 30 years, the Rust Belt state swung narrowly for Trump in 2016, being an essential part of his winning coalition.
In 2020, the election was nearly as close, but Biden carried the state in large part due to support from the Philadelphia metro area.
Trump made the state a center of each of his campaigns, as well as states that flipped to his 2016 column, such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
The positive state-wide poll also comes two weeks after a poll that placed the former president about 10% over Biden in a nationwide survey.