Former President Donald Trump led President Joe Biden in a recent survey, as he has in a majority of recent polls. However, the largest surprise was that Trump led the president among the youngest cohort of voters, which could show particular electoral strength ahead of the 2024 contest.
An NBC News poll released last week found Trump leading Biden overall by a margin of 46-44%.
However, one of the standout elements of the poll was that Trump was leading Biden among voters aged 18-34. In that age selection, Trump received 46% of potential voters, while Biden received 42%.
— New York Post (@nypost) November 19, 2023
The same poll found Trump with a large lead for the Republican presidential nomination. The former president carried 58% of potential GOP voters, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) brought in 18%, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) tallied 13%. No other candidate received more than 5%.
The overall results of the NBC News poll are similar to those of a number of national and statewide polls. Trump is leading in most nationwide surveys and has led in an even larger number of statewide polls.
Currently, in the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump has a nearly 2% lead over his 2020 opponent.
Trump’s lead has grown in recent months, with several surveys showing him with an outright majority over Biden. In addition to the poll cited above, a recent Harvard-Harris poll found Trump with 53% of the vote compared to Biden’s 47%. In a November Reuters-Ipsos poll, Trump carried 51% to Biden’s 49%.
Perhaps complicating matters more for Biden is the inclusion of third-party candidates who could siphon off support. Former Democratic candidate and activist Robert F. Kennedy has been polling at or above 10% in a number of recent surveys. Some of Biden’s potential vote may also be taken by Professor Cornel West.
Not factored into most polling is the inclusion of another potential name. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who recently announced that he would not be seeking another term in the Senate, has expressed openness to the idea of running for the White House.