Middle East in POWER STRUGGLE
It would be an understatement to say that the Middle East is unstable, but people still seem to forget how important it is to maintaining world peace. In fact, if the region weren’t anchored at its center in the Arabian Peninsula by powerful nations like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—status quo powers with a stake in maintaining an orderly global political and economic system—it could be far more disruptive to the world.
In an increasingly multipolar world, reinforcing this anchor with a formal US-Saudi security partnership would help to maintain the GCC firmly in American orbit. Ultimately, these are governments possessing the means and the will to actively aid the US in maintaining a US-led regional framework.
The Houthis’ aggressive acts on international commerce over the last six months demonstrate just how much disruption a revolutionary actor from this area can generate on a global scale, even with a little breach in the order. The Houthis have so far blocked maritime channels in the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea, driven up insurance and freight costs dramatically, and left the US and its allies unsure of how to handle this issue short of sending in soldiers to take over Houthi-controlled Yemen.
The Houthi threat is but a taste of what may occur if a revolutionary power like Iran or a militia like the Houthis were to disrupt a responsible status quo power like Saudi Arabia or its Gulf allies. The fact that many Western observers take the stability of the Arabian Peninsula for granted shows a lack of imagination since jihadi Islamists, like Al Qaeda, and revolutionary Iran and its allies have been vying for decades to take control of Saudi Arabia, a country rich in holy sites. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is, in fact, the ultimate goal for those seeking to overthrow the regional order spearheaded by the United States.
It is naive and hazardous from a strategic standpoint to ignore this or to try to envisage what would transpire if extreme revisionist groups were successful in upsetting Saudi stability. In the event of a crisis, control over the Arabian Peninsula would translate into control over approximately half of the world’s oil and gas reserves, which would drive up oil and gas prices worldwide. This is not to mention the potential impact of hostile forces upsetting the Islamic core and the resulting influence they would have over hundreds of millions of Muslims worldwide.
One statement by the late Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the head of an Iraqi militia supported by Iran, who was murdered with IRGC chief Suleimani in an American attack, serves as only one illustration of this kind of malicious thinking. “Not Jerusalem, Riyadh!” he exclaimed when asked on Iranian TV whether he looked forward to death in conquering Jerusalem.
For this reason, it is critical to U.S. economic and national security interests that Saudi Arabia assist in securing and maintaining an American-led order in the region via a formal security partnership. Furthermore, a pledge of this kind would serve as a potent disincentive to an Iran emboldened in recent times by the feeble US reactions to its numerous provocations, including the 2019 bombing of Saudi oil fields, the subsequent disruption of tanker traffic out of the Persian Gulf, and its backing of the Houthis in Yemen.
